Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR) of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one) with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models.</p

The effect of transmucosal 0.2mg/kg Midazolam premedication on dental anxiety, anaesthetic induction and psychological morbidity in children undergoing general anaesthesia for tooth extraction

&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; The project aims were to evaluate the benefit of transmucosal Midazolam 0.2mg/kg pre-medication on anxiety, induction behaviour and psychological morbidity in children undergoing general anaesthesia (GA) extractions. &lt;b&gt;Method:&lt;/b&gt; 179 children aged 5-10 years (mean 6.53 years) participated in this randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial. Ninety children had Midazolam placed in the buccal pouch. Dental anxiety was recorded pre operatively and 48 hours later using a child reported MCDAS-FIS scale. Behaviour at anaesthetic induction was recorded and psychological morbidity was scored by the parent using the Rutter Scale pre-operatively and again one-week later. Subsequent dental attendance was recorded at one, three and six months after GA. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; Whilst levels of mental anxiety did not reduce overall, the most anxious patients demonstrated a reduction in anxiety after receiving midazolam premedicationmay (p=0.01). Neither induction behaviour nor psychological morbidity improved. Irrespective of group, parents reported less hyperactive (p= 0.002) and more prosocial behaviour (p=0.002) after the procedure:;, older children improved most (p=0.048), Post GA Dental attendance was poor and unrelated to after the procedure and unaffected by premedication. &lt;b&gt;Conclusion:&lt;/b&gt; 0.2mg/kg buccal Midazolam provided some evidence for reducing anxiety in the most dentally anxious patients. However, induction behaviour, psychological morbidity and subsequent dental attendance were not found to alter between the premedication groups

The comparative diagnostic accuracy of the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the General Practitioner assessment of Cognition (GPCOG) for identifying dementia in primary care: a systematic review protocol

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Mechanisms of Risk and Resilience in Military Families: Theoretical and Empirical Basis of a Family-Focused Resilience Enhancement Program

Recent studies have confirmed that repeated wartime deployment of a parent exacts a toll on military children and families and that the quality and functionality of familial relations is linked to force preservation and readiness. As a result, family-centered care has increasingly become a priority across the military health system. FOCUS (Families OverComing Under Stress), a family-centered, resilience-enhancing program developed by a team at UCLA and Harvard Schools of Medicine, is a primary initiative in this movement. In a large-scale implementation project initiated by the Bureau of Navy Medicine, FOCUS has been delivered to thousands of Navy, Marine, Navy Special Warfare, Army, and Air Force families since 2008. This article describes the theoretical and empirical foundation and rationale for FOCUS, which is rooted in a broad conception of family resilience. We review the literature on family resilience, noting that an important next step in building a clinically useful theory of family resilience is to move beyond developing broad “shopping lists” of risk indicators by proposing specific mechanisms of risk and resilience. Based on the literature, we propose five primary risk mechanisms for military families and common negative “chain reaction” pathways through which they undermine the resilience of families contending with wartime deployments and parental injury. In addition, we propose specific mechanisms that mobilize and enhance resilience in military families and that comprise central features of the FOCUS Program. We describe these resilience-enhancing mechanisms in detail, followed by a discussion of the ways in which evaluation data from the program’s first 2 years of operation supports the proposed model and the specified mechanisms of action

Meta-Analyst: software for meta-analysis of binary, continuous and diagnostic data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meta-analysis is increasingly used as a key source of evidence synthesis to inform clinical practice. The theory and statistical foundations of meta-analysis continually evolve, providing solutions to many new and challenging problems. In practice, most meta-analyses are performed in general statistical packages or dedicated meta-analysis programs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Herein, we introduce Meta-Analyst, a novel, powerful, intuitive, and free meta-analysis program for the meta-analysis of a variety of problems. Meta-Analyst is implemented in C# atop of the Microsoft .NET framework, and features a graphical user interface. The software performs several meta-analysis and meta-regression models for binary and continuous outcomes, as well as analyses for diagnostic and prognostic test studies in the frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. Moreover, Meta-Analyst includes a flexible tool to edit and customize generated meta-analysis graphs (e.g., forest plots) and provides output in many formats (images, Adobe PDF, Microsoft Word-ready RTF). The software architecture employed allows for rapid changes to be made to either the Graphical User Interface (GUI) or to the analytic modules.</p> <p>We verified the numerical precision of Meta-Analyst by comparing its output with that from standard meta-analysis routines in Stata over a large database of 11,803 meta-analyses of binary outcome data, and 6,881 meta-analyses of continuous outcome data from the Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews. Results from analyses of diagnostic and prognostic test studies have been verified in a limited number of meta-analyses versus MetaDisc and MetaTest. Bayesian statistical analyses use the OpenBUGS calculation engine (and are thus as accurate as the standalone OpenBUGS software).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have developed and validated a new program for conducting meta-analyses that combines the advantages of existing software for this task.</p

Patterns of childhood body mass index (BMI), overweight and obesity in South Asian and black participants in the English National child measurement programme: effect of applying BMI adjustments standardising for ethnic differences in BMI-body fatness associations.

BACKGROUND: The National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) records weight and height and assesses overweight-obesity patterns in English children using body mass index (BMI), which tends to underestimate body fatness in South Asian children and overestimate body fatness in Black children of presumed African ethnicity. Using BMI adjustments to ensure that adjusted BMI was similarly related to body fatness in South Asian, Black and White children, we reassessed population overweight and obesity patterns in these ethnic groups in NCMP. METHODS: Analyses were based on 2012-2013 NCMP data in 582 899 children aged 4-5 years and 485 362 children aged 10-11 years. Standard centile-based approaches defined weight status in each age group before and after applying BMI adjustments for English South Asian and Black children derived from previous studies using the deuterium dilution method. FINDINGS: Among White children, overweight-obesity prevalences (boys, girls) were 23% and 21%, respectively, in 4-5 year olds and 33% and 30%, respectively, in 10-11 year olds. Before adjustment, South Asian children had lower overweight-obesity prevalences at 4-5 years (19%, 19%) and slightly higher prevalences at 10-11 years (42%, 34%), whereas Black children had higher overweight-obesity prevalences both at 4-5 years (31%, 29%) and 10-11 years (42%, 45%). Following adjustment, overweight-obesity prevalences were markedly higher in South Asian children both at 4-5 years (39%, 35%) and at 10-11 years (52%, 44%), whereas Black children had lower prevalences at 4-5 years (11%, 12%); at 10-11 years, prevalences were slightly lower in boys (32%) but higher in girls (35%). INTERPRETATION: BMI adjustments revealed extremely high overweight-obesity prevalences among South Asian children in England, which were not apparent in unadjusted data. In contrast, after adjustment, Black children had lower overweight-obesity prevalences except among older girls. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, NIHR CLAHRC (South London), NIHR CLAHRC (North Thames)

The effectiveness of interventions to change six health behaviours: a review of reviews

Background: Several World Health Organisation reports over recent years have highlighted the high incidence of chronic diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer. Contributory factors include unhealthy diets, alcohol and tobacco use and sedentary lifestyles. This paper reports the findings of a review of reviews of behavioural change interventions to reduce unhealthy behaviours or promote healthy behaviours. We included six different health-related behaviours in the review: healthy eating, physical exercise, smoking, alcohol misuse, sexual risk taking (in young people) and illicit drug use. We excluded reviews which focussed on pharmacological treatments or those which required intensive treatments (e. g. for drug or alcohol dependency). Methods: The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and several Ovid databases were searched for systematic reviews of interventions for the six behaviours (updated search 2008). Two reviewers applied the inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the quality of the reviews. The results were discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results: We included 103 reviews published between 1995 and 2008. The focus of interventions varied, but those targeting specific individuals were generally designed to change an existing behaviour (e. g. cigarette smoking, alcohol misuse), whilst those aimed at the general population or groups such as school children were designed to promote positive behaviours (e. g. healthy eating). Almost 50% (n = 48) of the reviews focussed on smoking (either prevention or cessation). Interventions that were most effective across a range of health behaviours included physician advice or individual counselling, and workplace- and school-based activities. Mass media campaigns and legislative interventions also showed small to moderate effects in changing health behaviours. Generally, the evidence related to short-term effects rather than sustained/longer-term impact and there was a relative lack of evidence on how best to address inequalities. Conclusions: Despite limitations of the review of reviews approach, it is encouraging that there are interventions that are effective in achieving behavioural change. Further emphasis in both primary studies and secondary analysis (e.g. systematic reviews) should be placed on assessing the differential effectiveness of interventions across different population subgroups to ensure that health inequalities are addressed.</p

Brief Report: Testing the Psychometric Properties of the Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale (SCAS) and the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED) in Autism Spectrum Disorder

Anxiety is a prevalent and impairing co-morbidity among individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), yet assessment measures, including screening tools, are seldom validated with autism samples. We explored the psychometric properties of the child and parent reports of the Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale (SCAS) and the Screen for Anxiety Related Disorder-71 (SCARED-71) with 49 males with ASD (10–16 years, 63% co-occurring anxiety). Both measures had excellent internal consistency and fair-good parent–child agreement. The SCAS has a higher proportion of items evaluating observable behaviors. Predictive power of the measures did not differ. Higher cut-points in the parent reports (SCARED only) and lower cut-points in the child reports may enhance prediction in this sample. Choice of measure and cut-points should be considered alongside intended purpose

Genetic and Environmental Causes of Variation in Trait Resilience in Young People

The aim of this multi-informant twin study was to determine the relative role of genetic and environmental factors in explaining variation in trait resilience in adolescents. Participants were consenting families (N = 2,638 twins in 1,394 families), from seven national cohorts (age 12–18 years, both sexes) of monozygotic and dizygotic twins reared together. Questionnaire data on the adolescents’ Ego-resilience (ER89) was collected from mothers, fathers and twins, and analysed by means of multivariate genetic modelling. Variance in trait resilience was best represented in an ADE common pathways model with sex limitation. Variance in the latent psychometric resilience factor was largely explained by additive genetic factors (77% in boys, 70% in girls), with the remaining variance (23 and 30%) attributable to non-shared environmental factors. Additive genetic sources explained more than 50% of the informant specific variation in mothers and fathers scores. In twins, additive and non-additive genetic factors together explained 40% and non-shared environmental factor the remaining 60% of variation. In the mothers’ scores, the additive genetic effect was larger for boys than for girls. The non-additive genetic factor found in the twins’ self ratings was larger in boys than in girls. The remaining sex differences in the specific factors were small. Trait resilience is largely genetically determined. Estimates based on several informants rather than single informants approaches are recommended